Wide angle: shocks, arms and finance

Zooming out from the regions, three questions run through my work: how transboundary economic, climate and political shocks translate into local conflict risk; how states finance and equip their armed forces; and how climate finance reaches, or fails to reach, fragile states.

  • Shocks. A meta-analysis of the empirical literature on shocks and internal conflict (Journal of Peace Research, 2025), with replication files.
  • Arms. The political economy of military aircraft in Europe (Defence and Peace Economics, 2024); military spending and development aid in the Sahel (Ferdi, 2016).
  • Risk and finance. Socio-political risk in country-risk analysis (AFD, 2018), applied by AFD economists to Turkey, Tunisia and Lebanon; a pathway to climate-resilient development in fragile settings (ODI Global, 2023), cited by ILO (2025) and CREWS (2024); work in progress on climate risk sharing in World Bank projects and on gender in Japan’s climate finance.

Publications and working papers

Camille Laville, Paul Vernus (2026). Domestic contractors, climate shocks and project performance: evidence from World Bank procurement.

Camille Laville, E. Tan, T. Kamninga (2026). What's in a tag? Lessons from Japan on gender integration in climate finance.

Camille Laville, Pierre Mandon (2025). Internal conflicts and shocks: a narrative meta-analysis. Journal of Peace Research, 62(4), pp. 1159–1175. Earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10315 (2023).

Cite Source Document DOI

Silvia Fuselli, Mira Saidi, Yashodhan Ghorpade, Sara Agostini, Camille Laville (2025). The impact of social safety nets on economic, social and political outcomes in fragile, conflict and violent contexts. World Bank, SASPP Technical Series.

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Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau, Camille Laville, Julien Malizard, Laure Noël (2024). The political economy of military aircraft: the case of Europe. Defence and Peace Economics, 35(4), pp. 464–503.

Cite Source Document DOI

Camille Laville, Pierre Mandon (2023). Replication files for "Internal conflicts and shocks: a narrative meta-analysis".

Code

Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Manisha Gulati, Camille Laville, Mauricio Vazquez, Tom Tanner (2023). Building forward better: a pathway to climate-resilient development in fragile and conflict-affected situations. ODI Global, Framing note.

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Camille Laville (2021). Politicization of religion and the timing of political conflicts: evidence from John Paul II's international travels.

PDF

Camille Laville (2019). Les causes des conflits civils : avancées récentes à l'aide de données désagrégées [The causes of civil conflicts: recent advances using disaggregated data]. Revue française d’économie, 34(3), pp. 123–165.

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Clémence Vergne, Camille Laville (2018). Comment analyser le risque sociopolitique ? Une composante clé du risque-pays [How to analyse socio-political risk: a key component of country risk]. AFD, MacroDev, no. 25, pp. 1–52.

Cite Source Document DOI

Camille Laville (2016). Comparaison entre les budgets des opérations militaires menées au Sahel et les financements alloués au développement. In Allier sécurité et développement. Plaidoyer pour le Sahel, Volume 2, pp. 41–114.

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