Economist (PhD) | Conflict, climate and natural resources in fragile states
Independent researcher and consultant
Associate Researcher, CERDI
Research Fellow, Civil War Paths (University of York)
I study the structural causes of internal conflict, and how land, climate and natural resources shape both conflict and peace in fragile states. I work in the field alongside national partners whenever access allows, which in conflict settings is not always the case. At the core of my methods are satellite and geolocated event data, whose strengths and limits I have studied closely, and qualitative interviews, combined with spatial econometrics, meta-analysis and scenario building. I work in French and English, between conflict economics and applied policy research.
This site follows where my research stands, region by region: close-ups on Chad and the Sahel, Central Africa, the Middle East and Papua New Guinea, and a wide angle on shocks, arms and finance.
Questions I work on
What drives internal conflict, and what do our conflict data actually measure? PhD thesis; Revue française d’économie (2019); Journal of Peace Research (2025). Wide angle →
How do access to land and its governance shape both conflict and resilience in drylands? Cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria; Sudanese refugee women in eastern Chad; the JASS programme in Mali and Niger. Chad and the Sahel →
How do conflict, displacement and environmental degradation compound each other in protracted crises? Eastern DRC, Yemen, Syria, Papua New Guinea. Central Africa → · Middle East → · Pacific →
Who carries climate risk, and who gets climate finance? Chad’s climate-finance readiness; risk sharing in World Bank projects; Japan’s bilateral climate finance. Wide angle →
Close-ups and wide angle
Base map: Natural Earth, via the rnaturalearth R package.
Close-ups: Chad and the Sahel · Central Africa · Middle East · Papua New Guinea and the Pacific
Wide angle: Shocks, arms and finance
Recent publications
Research agenda
My current research asks how land and natural resources shape both conflict and peace in drylands and fragile settings.
- Land degradation, peace and security. Why relatively safe areas hosting displaced people come under heavy environmental pressure and become political bargaining spaces, and what inclusive community governance of land can achieve there.
- Who carries climate risk? Domestic contractors, climate shocks and project performance in World Bank procurement (with Paul Vernus, CERDI).
- Gender and climate finance. What climate-finance tags reveal, and hide, about gender integration: lessons from Japan (with E. Tan and T. Kamninga, ODI Global).
- From the PhD. Grassland scarcity and herder–farmer conflict across the Niger–Nigeria border; the politicisation of religion and the timing of political conflict.
Work in progress and replication files
Positions
Education
Contact
laville.ecodef[at]gmail.com
Open to research collaborations, and to selected advisory work on conflict and climate-security analysis, evidence reviews, scenario and risk analysis, and programme and financing assessments in fragile settings, in French and English.
- Paris,